Capital Market Outlook

IN THIS ISSUE

• Macro Strategy — Rates, Dollar, and Oil Raise Downside Risks: The historical link between an inverted yield curve and recessions has been called into question.
  
• Market View — U.S.-China Decoupling: A More Nuanced View: While much has been made of the fact that U.S. imports from China have declined to multi-year lows, we present a more nuanced view of the U.S.-Sino decoupling thesis.
  
• Thought of the Week — Time In The Bond Market, Not Timing The Bond Market: Should investors continue to rely on market assets and not overweight cash no matter how tempting higher short-term yields may be?